Petrochemical Market Outlook (February 24, 2025)

Josh Smith
February 24, 2025

Summary (one paragraph)

Petrochemical markets face mixed conditions shaped by slight declines in Brent crude, elevated natural gas prices, and shifting refinery crack spreads. Ethylene and propylene production may see tightened supply due to rising natural gas costs, slightly offsetting weak global demand. Aromatics markets show mixed trends, with benzene costs rising slightly, yet styrene prices likely to decline following restored production capacity at Styrolution Bayport. Geopolitical risks from Europe and the Middle East continue influencing feedstock pricing and overall market stability.

Summary (two paragraphs)

Marginal reductions in Brent crude prices have provided mild relief for petrochemical feedstock costs, though persistently negative crack spreads, especially for naphtha, indicate ongoing softness in petrochemical demand. Elevated natural gas prices, driven by increased heating demand, may limit ethylene production capacities in North America, providing limited price support amid generally weak market conditions. Propylene markets similarly may find stability if production rates decrease in response to higher feedstock costs and limited global demand.

Market conditions reflect strength in diesel-driven industrial sectors, supporting petrochemical consumption, while gasoline's narrowing crack spread signals weakening consumer and packaging markets. Aromatics face mixed pressures—benzene prices trend upward, influenced by feedstock costs, yet styrene markets anticipate downward adjustments due to production recovery at key facilities. Geopolitical uncertainties, notably in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, remain crucial variables, potentially causing further volatility in feedstock pricing and impacting downstream petrochemical profitability.

Market Conditions

  • Brent Crude: $81.24/bbl (-0.9% WoW)
  • Henry Hub Natural Gas: $2.81/MMBtu (+2.1% WoW)
  • Gasoline: $15.20/bbl (-0.5% WoW)
  • Diesel: $24.75/bbl (+1.2% WoW)
  • Naphtha: -$8.90/bbl (reflecting weak feedstock demand)

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